Double Chance

Double chance is a bet type built for sports where a draw is a live possibility — soccer, mainly, since American sports like the NFL, NBA, and MLB always play to a winner. Instead of picking one of three outcomes on the moneyline, you pick two of the three and win if either one happens. There are always exactly three versions on offer: home team or draw, away team or draw, and home team or away team (which is really just “no draw”). You’re not picking a score or a margin, just narrowing the field of results that lose your bet from two down to one.

The catch is obvious once you see it: you’re covering roughly two-thirds of the possible outcomes, so the odds shrink accordingly. A team that’s -120 to win outright might be something like -450 on double chance to win-or-draw, because the sportsbook has to price in that you’re now wrong far less often. You’re not getting a discount on risk — you’re paying for it, the same way a wider point spread costs you more juice. The bet exists for situations where the outright win is what you want but the draw is the specific result you’re most afraid of, not the loss.

Where this actually gets used is when a bettor likes a favorite to avoid defeat but doesn’t trust them to break down a stubborn opponent — think a talented side facing a team that’s going to sit back and defend a point. Betting the favorite’s double chance (win-or-draw) protects against the single most likely spoiler outcome without paying for outright win insurance you don’t need, since a loss was always your real fear anyway, not a scoreless stalemate.

Example

Say Seattle Sounders host LAFC in an MLS regular-season match, and the sportsbook posts this three-way moneyline: LAFC -120, Draw +260, Sounders +340. You think LAFC is the better side on paper but you’re wary of a road draw against a well-organized Sounders defense — a common outcome in this matchup. The book offers double chance at these prices: LAFC-or-Draw (1X) -450, LAFC-or-Sounders (no draw) -140, Draw-or-Sounders (X2) +150.

You bet $220 on LAFC-or-Draw at -450. To calculate the payout on a negative-odds bet, you divide 100 by the odds (dropping the minus sign) and multiply by your stake: 220 × (100 / 450) = $48.89 in profit, for a total return of $268.89 if LAFC wins or the match ends level. If Sounders win outright, you lose the full $220 — that’s the one outcome you didn’t cover.

Now compare that to just betting the $220 on LAFC’s straight moneyline at -120: 220 × (100 / 120) = $183.33 in profit, a total return of $403.33 — but only if LAFC wins outright. A draw busts that bet completely.

The gap between $48.89 and $183.33 in profit is the literal price of draw insurance. You’re giving up over $130 in potential profit on this stake to convert “draw” from a losing result into a winning one. Whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on how likely you actually think a draw is — if you’d put Seattle’s chances of holding LAFC to a tie at anywhere close to the implied 18% the -450 price suggests, the double chance bet is fairly priced. If you think a draw is less likely than that, you’re better off just taking the straight moneyline and pocketing the bigger number.

Key Points

• Use it when the draw, specifically, is your fear: If you’re worried about an outright loss, double chance doesn’t help — it still loses if your covered team loses. It only pays off when your actual concern is the game ending level.
• Price the insurance before you buy it: Convert the double chance odds to implied probability and compare it to your own honest estimate of a draw. If the book’s price implies a draw is less likely than you think it is, the straight moneyline is the better bet.
• It’s not a hedge against bad luck, it’s a narrower bet: Double chance removes an entire outcome from your risk, but you’re still fully exposed to the one you didn’t cover — don’t treat it as a “safe” bet in some general sense.
• Best value in low-scoring, defensive matchups: Early World Cup group-stage games, road matches for mid-table MLS sides, and any fixture where one team is expected to defend a lead or a scoreless game are where draws cluster and double chance earns its keep.
• Compare it to alternatives, not just to itself: A double chance bet and a same-game parlay of a smaller moneyline stake plus a separate draw bet can sometimes beat the packaged double chance price — check both before assuming the bundled option is more efficient.
• It’s a soccer-market staple in the US, not a universal option: Because the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL don’t have draws, double chance mainly shows up on soccer boards (MLS, Premier League, Champions League, World Cup) at US sportsbooks — don’t expect it on a typical American sports slate.